OPINION: This article contains commentary which may reflect the author’s opinion
With the absolute mess that the Biden administration and the Democrats have made of the economy, foreign issues, the border problem, and other concerns, it seems that the Republicans are in the winning position going into the midterm elections and the startup of the 2024 presidential election.
But even though there are some polls that show this is the case, there are polls that show Americans at large are considering if they are better off with Republicans leading.
McKenna of Daily Caller looks at the generic ballot: “Are you planning to vote for the Republican or the Democrat candidate in 2022?”
Right now, the generic ballot responses are all over the map, ranging from plus 4 percentage points for the Democrats (Politico) to plus 8 for the Republicans (Rasmussen). The average — which should be avoided because they are not statistically healthy — is plus 1.9% for the Republicans.
As always, some perspective is in order. In 1994, the Republicans performed 6 points better (51.5% to 45%) than the Democrats with respect to total votes cast in House races. In 2010, they did about the same (51.3% to 44.7%).
The narrowness of the generic ballot advantage is an outlier. All of the opinion research out there indicates that the Democrats, broadly speaking, are in trouble because of the national mood, because of concerns about inflation and the economy, because of the general hopelessness of Team Biden.
He points out that data shows Republicans need to show the public that their platform will restore American, and not just flip the problems.
Let’s take a look at one survey, probably the best of the bunch so far, which illustrates the challenge facing Republicans. ABC/Washington Post executed a survey of 907 registered voters nationwide at the very end of April. It showed all the usual results — big Republican advantages with respect to inflation (plus 19), crime (plus 12), and the economy (plus 14) — and a president sinking (minus 10).
That all tracks with pretty much every other survey conducted since the disaster in Afghanistan. The interesting result, and one that also tracks with other opinion research, is that despite this, respondents only gave the Republicans a one-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot.
Or, maybe you’re a Harvard man. The Harvard/Harris team surveyed 1308 registered voters in late June. That survey, too, showed the usual results — 70% of respondents think we are on the wrong track; 88% think we are or will be in a recession shortly; President Joe Biden’s approval is net negative (20 points). Despite this, the generic ballot question was split 50-50.
These results are consistent with other lots of opinion research executed over the last few months, which consistently indicates voters identify both the economy and president as failing enterprises. At the same time, voters seem unwilling to commit fully to changing congressional horses, as the generic ballot results bounce around both the margin of error and the centerline.
He notes that it is interesting that voters are not convinced anyone else can do better than the feeble administration that currently presides over the White House.
What they are uncertain about is whether giving Republicans control of congress will make it any better. One can hardly blame them. The Republicans have, for the most part, steadfastly refused to indicate what they might do if given control of the legislative branch, and have, in the last few years, shown an alarming and enduring preference for an adolescent obsession with social media rather than a willingness to engage on the substance of policy.
They should at least be thinking about arranging difficult votes on spending rescissions, energy independence, carbon taxes, border security, crime, etc. They may be; however, none of that is evident at the moment.
Daily Caller’s McKenna also writes that the Republican effort to bring the 2020 election fraud to light is seen as a futile attempt by some Republican voters.
Finally, it is likely that the ongoing and pointless obsession with the 2020 elections by perhaps as much as a third of Republican voters makes voters wonder whether that a Republican congress will be productive and helpful in righting the ship of state.
A poll by Politico showed that American voters are more concerned with the overwhelming economic issues at the moment.
Asking “which of three voting reform ideas should be ‘the top priority’ for Congress to pass: reforming Congress’ role in counting Electoral votes, expanding voting access in federal elections, or expanding oversight of states’ changes to voting practices. the response was underwhelming.
The winning answer was “None of the above” with a whopping 32%.
Politico noted,” This isn’t surprising. Political reform can be arcane and difficult to follow, and it is rarely as important to voters as bread-and-butter issues like the economy, national security, and education.”
The poll bore out Politico’s statement, as it showed that as far as voting reform, 31% favor reform, 24% probably favor reform, 20% do not favor reform, and 25% don’t know or have no opinion, which Politico chalks up to they” don’t know what the heck we are talking about.”
Source: The Republic Brief